2011年11月23日 星期三

Will LED Stocks Follow Solar Stocks Over the Commoditization Cliff?

One irony of green investing is that doing good does not always do well for investors. Recently the rewards for do-gooders have been abysmal. For years, I've been warning that the rapid price reductions we need to make solar mainstream are unlikely to be good for the profits of solar companies.

This year a combination of subsidy cuts in Europe and photovoltaic module oversupply brought those price reductions home to roost. Recently, PV manufactures have been scaling back expansion plans, which should help reign in module supply and the price cuts which are undermining solar manufacturer profitability.Related Searches: led bike head light, bike light, brightcrystal201 silicone,

Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) are widely assumed to be the lighting technology of the future. LEDs have found their way into televisions and computer monitors, where they are much more energy efficient than the incumbent LCD and Plasma technologies.I stock many of the parts used in these ledtube2011 projects, on my web store. As I discussed in my March article "Ten LED Stocks, and a Wildcard," LEDs are also just beginning to enter the consumer market as replacements for incandescent bulbs and Compact Fluorescent Lights (CFLs). While LED based bulbs are still much more expensive than CFLs, they have generally superior performance in several ways: They turn on instantly, are fully dimmable, work well in the cold, and last much longer. LEDs also don't come with any worries about the small amount of mercury contained in fluorescent bulbs (CFLs included.)

Although LEDs are potentially more than twice as efficient as CFLs (and ten times as efficient as conventional incandescents), my experience with replacement bulbs (I own a half dozen of various types) has been that they are only slightly more efficient per unit light output than comparable CFLs.

LED chips currently produce 100-120 lumens per watt, and typical CFLs produce 60-70 lumens per watt. But it's clear from the comparison chart from Phillips (PHG) below that the company's LED based bulbs produce only 48 lumens per watt.Design and development of lightbrigh solutions. That is likely why LED manufacturer comparison charts like the one below only reference incandescents,We can produce led panel light,brightstal according to your requirements. not CFLs.

The disappointing performance of LED screw-in bulbs is most likely because LED bulb replacements require normal household alternating current (AC) to be converted to direct current (DC), as well as to be kept cool. These added complexities have so far prevented LED replacement bulbs from achieving their full potential efficiency.

Dr. Roland Haitz (of the eponymous Haitz's Law-- the Moore's Law of the LED industry), quoted in a Cannacord Genuity research note, "views replacement bulbs as a bridge solution and believes that in 20-30 years there will be no more screw-in light bulbs. He sees fixtures transitioning into more of an integrated solution.Whether you want the complete package with very high end dual beam strobes, or basic bestledlightbu ..."

Given the difficulties of adapting LEDs to a form-factor designed for incandescent bulbs, I'm inclined to agree that replacement bulbs will continue to struggle. Instead, LEDs will continue to make headway in a growing number of lighting niche applications. They already dominate flashlights and other battery powered lighting where their preference for DC current is an advantage rather than a disadvantage. They also dominate in traffic signals, where their directional light and pure colors are an advantage. Continued price reductions will allow them to dominate an increasing number of niches.

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