How will the coming price drops evolve, and should investors simply avoid the industry, or will there be ports of refuge in the coming storm? I asked three green money managers for their perspectives.
Rafael Coven, manager of the Cleantech Index which underlies the PowerShares Cleantech ETF (PZD), thinks prices for LEDs are likely to fall as fast if not faster than solar PV due to the rapid commoditization of the product. He thinks that as prices fall,Flexible bestledlight are designed for cove lighting, halo-lit channel lettering, cabinet lighting, "LEDs will start to grab share from halogen lamps first and then decorative incandescent lamps. Eventually LEDs will take share from compact fluorescent lamps where the need for dimming is high, but it will take much longer for LEDs to supplant CFLs because of CFLs longer lamp life/replacement cycle, and the diminished value proposition vs. replacing incandescent lamps with CFLs. ... [A]nywhere where labor for lamp replacement is high will be excellent applications for LEDs as well."
But there are already niches where LEDs have the advantage at current prices. Coven says, "I have already seen long-operating hour applications where LED lamps have already been effectively adapted to replace T8 fluorescent lamps with solid economic returns."
He thinks most current LED companies will not be able to survive as high volume/low cost producers,Shop our online store for goodledbulbs lights in a multitude of colors. so he suggests looking for companies with strong intellectual property that can earn significant profits from licensing, or companies with superior technology which will allow them to charge higher prices.
Garvin Jabusch of Green Alpha Advisors and manager of the Sierra Club Green Alpha Portfolio,Here is a r4onsalet for low-cost, easy use. ... As these blades spin during riding, thinks that the PV and LED industries are similar in that they have "perceived oversupply issues," but also rapidly increasing demand. He says, "The macro case for LEDs rests mainly with incandescent bulb sales being banned in the EU, US and China beginning as early as next year, and phasing to complete ban by 2016. This is significant: China alone consumes 1.07 billion incandescent bulbs per year. LEDs aren't the only alternative but they are the best one in terms of efficiency."
For ports in the storm, Jabusch points to "upstream play Aixtron AG (AIXG) which makes and sells the machines other firms use to make LEDs, and so provides a way to bet on the industry without selecting individual diode manufacturers. We also like Applied Materials (AMAT) whose LED operations include [high efficiency] LED applications for displays,Our original, revolutionary lightingbright that keeps you visible. LED manufacturing software designed to shorten production time, and several other tactical plays hitting multiple verticals and diverse uses. AMAT is also well diversified in other next economy sectors such as advanced materials and energy storage, so it's an all around good green economy bet." Green Alpha Advisors and its clients are long both stocks.
Jeff Cianci, Chief Investment Officer at long-short equity fund Green Science Partners sees parallels between the two industries in that both need to drive down prices,Shop online for ledbulbs023. Light bulbs, rope light, accessories and decorative lighting. but he also sees contrasts. He says "solar needs to consolidate the number of players and LEDs need to consolidate the steps in the value chain for faster adoption." Cianci thinks the winners will be those that can vertically integrate along the value chain, but they will only be relative winners. He says, "Short term, I don’t see many places to hide." Longer term, he expects the winners will be acquired by larger industrial technology companies."
Rafael Coven, manager of the Cleantech Index which underlies the PowerShares Cleantech ETF (PZD), thinks prices for LEDs are likely to fall as fast if not faster than solar PV due to the rapid commoditization of the product. He thinks that as prices fall,Flexible bestledlight are designed for cove lighting, halo-lit channel lettering, cabinet lighting, "LEDs will start to grab share from halogen lamps first and then decorative incandescent lamps. Eventually LEDs will take share from compact fluorescent lamps where the need for dimming is high, but it will take much longer for LEDs to supplant CFLs because of CFLs longer lamp life/replacement cycle, and the diminished value proposition vs. replacing incandescent lamps with CFLs. ... [A]nywhere where labor for lamp replacement is high will be excellent applications for LEDs as well."
But there are already niches where LEDs have the advantage at current prices. Coven says, "I have already seen long-operating hour applications where LED lamps have already been effectively adapted to replace T8 fluorescent lamps with solid economic returns."
He thinks most current LED companies will not be able to survive as high volume/low cost producers,Shop our online store for goodledbulbs lights in a multitude of colors. so he suggests looking for companies with strong intellectual property that can earn significant profits from licensing, or companies with superior technology which will allow them to charge higher prices.
Garvin Jabusch of Green Alpha Advisors and manager of the Sierra Club Green Alpha Portfolio,Here is a r4onsalet for low-cost, easy use. ... As these blades spin during riding, thinks that the PV and LED industries are similar in that they have "perceived oversupply issues," but also rapidly increasing demand. He says, "The macro case for LEDs rests mainly with incandescent bulb sales being banned in the EU, US and China beginning as early as next year, and phasing to complete ban by 2016. This is significant: China alone consumes 1.07 billion incandescent bulbs per year. LEDs aren't the only alternative but they are the best one in terms of efficiency."
For ports in the storm, Jabusch points to "upstream play Aixtron AG (AIXG) which makes and sells the machines other firms use to make LEDs, and so provides a way to bet on the industry without selecting individual diode manufacturers. We also like Applied Materials (AMAT) whose LED operations include [high efficiency] LED applications for displays,Our original, revolutionary lightingbright that keeps you visible. LED manufacturing software designed to shorten production time, and several other tactical plays hitting multiple verticals and diverse uses. AMAT is also well diversified in other next economy sectors such as advanced materials and energy storage, so it's an all around good green economy bet." Green Alpha Advisors and its clients are long both stocks.
Jeff Cianci, Chief Investment Officer at long-short equity fund Green Science Partners sees parallels between the two industries in that both need to drive down prices,Shop online for ledbulbs023. Light bulbs, rope light, accessories and decorative lighting. but he also sees contrasts. He says "solar needs to consolidate the number of players and LEDs need to consolidate the steps in the value chain for faster adoption." Cianci thinks the winners will be those that can vertically integrate along the value chain, but they will only be relative winners. He says, "Short term, I don’t see many places to hide." Longer term, he expects the winners will be acquired by larger industrial technology companies."
沒有留言:
張貼留言